Macro micro trader

Three weeks ago I had this post about the long term bullishness (Did we see it wrong all the while?) with a different perspective on the market. In that post I had hoped for some clawback in the YM after a relentless rally. That clawback is here and seems to have helped getting us the required momentum that may come (or may not) to help the bulls. Today’s post is an update on the same and if that view still holds true?

YM (Monthly): That breakout and bakcktest of the long term channel is at risk of losing its steam if the ‘Santa rally’ is not to be seen at the end of the month.

YM (Weekly): So far it seems to be a backtest of the channel breakout. But the weekly candle of last week isn’t bullish either. We wait till the end of this month before taking a call.

ES (Daily): Bear flag continues to have its impact on the prices and now on the verge of breaking down along with daily 50 MA that has held on Friday.

ES (Weekly): Zoom out and we see weekly 50 MA that has resulted into price pressure on the bulls.

NQ (Monthly): Monthly backtest of the long term breakout is at the risk of giving up if the 50MA on the monthly gives up again by the end of this month.

NQ (Weekly): Weekly, couldn’t event sustain the weekly 20MA and upper end of the channel.

NQ (Daily): The bear flag on the daily is still in its formation but what is surprising (or rather not so surprising) is the shallowness of the flag.

RTY (Weekly): While, RTY continues to hold under the long term channel, this weekly H&S that I had posted last month, has almost completed its right shoulder and on the verge of breaking down of its neckline (also would be a new low for RTY).

Conclusion: Barring any Santa rally, it would be riskier to continue to be bullish in the coming year. Let’s see how it unfolds. I continue to hold no position (Haven’t traded after the last trade that went wrong early November).